Home / Budget 2026
The Autumn Budget, Wednesday 28 October 2026
What is known so far, what to watch on the day, and a plain-English summary in your inbox by 6pm.
The speech is expected at about 12:30pm. Education only, not advice.
Free, on the day
Budget day in plain English
One email by 6pm on 28 October, in four parts: pensions, savings and ISAs, mortgages and property, tax and duties. What changed, what didn’t, and when each change starts. After that, one email every Sunday.
As at 30 September 2026
What is known so far
Each point is from a story already covered in the videos, with its figures checked at the time. Estimates are labelled as estimates.
- About half the buffer has gone
- The Chancellor, John Healey, inherited £23.6 billion of headroom: the gap between what the government takes in and what its own rules allow it to spend. Analysts reckon about half of it has gone, because the cost of borrowing has jumped and growth is weaker than forecast. Video, 30 September.
- The three big taxes are said to be off the table
- Income tax, National Insurance and VAT are covered by the government’s pledge not to raise them for working people. If that holds, whatever is raised has to come from somewhere else, which points to a package of smaller increases spread across other taxes.
- A first-time buyer scheme has been announced
- Labour has said the Budget will include a scheme called “Your First Home”: first-time buyers could buy a new-build with a 2.5% deposit, backed by a government equity loan of 20%. The terms have not been published. Video, 29 September.
- Government borrowing costs hit a 28-year high in September
- The yield on 30-year gilts, the rate the government pays to borrow for 30 years, reached 5.89% on 1 September, the highest since March 1998. A bigger interest bill is one of the things eating into the buffer. Video, 9 September.
On the day
The one number to watch
The official forecast from the Office for Budget Responsibility is published with the Budget. It shows how much buffer is left once the tax changes are counted.
Analysts talk about roughly £20 billion as comfortable and £10 billion as not enough. The figure matters beyond Westminster because it shapes what lenders charge the government to borrow, and long-term borrowing costs feed into pensions and the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages.
“If it lands nearer £20 billion, lenders will relax. If it’s nearer £10 billion, gilts will tell you straight away.”
Rob’s read, 30 September. Gilts are the government’s IOUs; their price shows how much lenders trust it.
-
UK economic growth (GDP)
Whether the economy grew or shrank that month.
-
UK jobs and wages
Pay growth is one of the things the Bank of England weighs when it looks at inflation.
-
UK inflation, September figure
The figure the Bank of England is trying to keep at 2%. It feeds straight into the next interest rate decision.
-
UK government borrowing
How much the government borrowed. It shapes how much room the Chancellor has.
-
UK house prices and rents
The official measure of what homes sold for and what tenants are paying.
-
UK retail sales
How much households spent in the shops.
-
The Autumn Budget
Tax, pensions, savings allowances and duties for the year ahead, set out by the Chancellor.